After nearly two years of elevated mortgage rates, the market is finally shifting in a direction that benefits homeowners and mortgage originators alike. Rates are dropping, and it’s estimated as many as five million refinance opportunities will be uncovered.

Many of our past clients will be eligible to refinance very soon and save significant amounts of money. This is a chance to re-engage with everyone in our database and strengthen that connection, all while giving our businesses the much-needed boost we’ve been waiting for.

The opportunity is there, but there’s a problem: most originators aren’t prepared to move quickly when rates fall. 

Without a system to prioritize which clients to contact first, we risk wasting time—time we don’t have when rates are fluctuating rapidly up and down. It’s easy to fall into this trap: by the time we’re done reaching out and explaining the benefits of refinancing, the rates have already climbed again, or worse, our clients have moved on to our competitors.

This article will guide you through a better approach to capturing refinances: establishing a strike rate with clients the moment their loan closes. That way, you’re not scrambling when rates drop—you’re prepared. You’ll also learn tips on how to prioritize your database so you’re always ahead of the curve.

The Importance of Establishing a Strike Rate

A strike rate is the interest rate that would make it undeniably beneficial for a client to refinance their mortgage. By identifying this threshold early, we eliminate guesswork and missed opportunities when rates start to drop.

When rates first began to fall earlier this year, most originators were caught off guard by how quickly the market shifted. They found themselves dialing and redialing past clients, trying to get them on board to restructure their loan and capture the savings. By the time they made meaningful contact, rates had crept back up, and the window of opportunity had closed.

This is why establishing a strike rate before rates drop is critical. By knowing exactly what rate will benefit everyone in your database, you can act quickly when it hits, locking in their new loan and saving them money. You’ll spend less time selling the refi and more time getting loans done when the opportunity presents itself.

The best time to establish a strike rate is during your post-closing call. Most originators see a closed loan as the end of their job, but in reality, that’s when the work begins. By proactively managing our clients’ debt in this way, we’ll be seen as valuable financial partners, not just one-time service providers. This builds trust, loyalty, and—most importantly—future business.

Rates are cyclical, and while we may miss one window, there will always be another. The key is to be ready. Instead of waiting for rates to drop and hoping our clients will remember us, we need to get ahead of it. Establishing a strike rate with every borrower we close will allow us to move faster, and in this market, speed is everything.

Pro Tips:

1. Sell the benefit, not the refinance. Don’t focus on just saving them money—help them visualize what they can do with that savings. Whether it’s maxing out their 401(k), paying off high-interest debt, or taking a long-awaited vacation, you want to tie their savings to a meaningful goal.
2. Highlight the long-term value. Don’t just tell them how much they’ll save monthly—expand it to show them how much they’ll save over 5, 10, or even 30 years. These bigger numbers will help clients see the true financial impact.

How to Prioritize Your Database

Once you’ve established strike rates for your clients, the next challenge is knowing who to call first when rates drop. Not every contact in your database is equal in terms of ease or loan potential, so prioritizing them correctly is crucial.

Here’s a simple method for categorizing your database so you know who to tackle first:

• Easy easy: These clients were easy to work with, and their loan process was straightforward. They should be at the top of your list when rates drop.
• Easy hard: These clients were relatively easy to work with, but their loan was more complex. They come in second.
• Hard easy: These clients were challenging but had an easy loan. While they may require more effort, their loan process will be smooth.
• Hard hard: Tough clients with difficult loans. These should be last on your list, as they can slow down your pipeline and cause stress for your team.

Prioritizing our databases allows us to focus on the low-hanging fruit—the clients we can refinance quickly and with minimal hassle. This is crucial because when rates drop, the market moves fast. We want to close deals with as little friction as possible. Those tough clients and complex loans can wait for another time.

Why is this segmentation so important? Refinancing opportunities are fleeting. We cannot afford to let time-consuming loans clog up our pipelines. By tackling the “easy easy” clients first, we can lock in more refis faster, which means happier clients and more referrals down the line.

When you call your clients to discuss the refi, frame the conversation around their strike rate. You don’t want to sell them on the idea of restructuring their loan when rates drop and explaining the process; that conversation should happen well in advance.

Instead, when rates hit the agreed-upon strike rate, it should be a quick call or text:

“Great news! The rate we discussed is now available. I’ve locked it in for you, and you’re going to save $3,600 this year. Congratulations!”

If you’ve done the groundwork, your clients will already trust you, and they’ll be more likely to avoid the hassle of fielding offers from the mob of servicers and other companies that are coming at them from all sides.

Pro Tip: Spend time building rapport during these calls. Ask them about their lives, their families, and what’s new with them. You want them to see you as an ally and a friend, not just a loan officer. This is how you build long-term loyalty and protect your hard-earned loans from being poached.

Easy Refinance Opportunities to Grab Today

If you feel like your current database isn’t large enough to fully take advantage of the coming refi boom, consider looking beyond your past clients. Consumer direct marketing can open new doors, especially in segments that are often overlooked by other originators.

1. Builders: A significant portion of new home sales over the past few years has been handled by builders, whose preferred lenders are often focused on purchases rather than refinances. This creates a massive opportunity for you to swoop in and handle refinances for these clients.
2. Credit Unions: Credit union originators are typically salaried employees who aren’t financially incentivized to manage client debt proactively. Many of their clients have adjustable-rate mortgages with rates in the 5.5–6% range, which are ripe for refinancing into fixed rates. By monitoring these loan terms and offering stability through a refinance, you can build trust and win their business.

These opportunities allow you to expand your reach and tap into a broader market that may not be getting the attention they deserve from their current lenders. The loans are out there – go grab them!

The Bottom Line

The mortgage market is entering a period of significant opportunity. If you take the time to segment your database and establish strike rates with your borrowers, you will be in an excellent position to take full advantage of the upcoming refinance boom. The work you do today will set you up for success well into 2025.

And remember, speed and preparedness are everything. As rates continue to drop, the originators who can act quickly and efficiently will win the most business.

To help you get started, we’ve put together 5 sales scripts in both audio and written format that will guide you on what to say to your database. Download them now, start calling your clients, and enjoy the business flowing in!